Polyolefin (Polyolefin, PO) with ethylene, propylene, or senior olefin polymer, is the largest and most widely used polymer materials production, among them with polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) is the most important.
The consulting think, during the period of "much starker choices-and graver consequences-in", as the (methanol) coal to olefin (CTO/MTO) and propane dehydrogenation (PDH) route, with the rapid development of our country, will continue to increase production capacity and output of polyolefin self-sufficiency continuously improve, diversity competition intensified; But at the same time as domestic high-end polyolefin products in short supply, heavily dependent on imports, as a result, polyolefin products high-end development, realize the import substitution, will be the key direction of polyolefin industry upgrading in China.
1.The current situation of the supply and demand of polyethylene in China
As of the end of 2016, China's polyethylene production capacity reached about 17 million tons per year, with an additional capacity of about 1.5 million tons per year, according to the aihua consulting data, all from the CTO/MTO project. In 2016, Chinese polyethylene consumption was about 24 million tons, producing about 14 million tons and net imports of nearly 10 million tons. The main areas of consumption of polyethylene are film, injection molding, blow molding and tube.
2.Supply and demand of Chinese polypropylene
As of the end of 2016, China's polypropylene production capacity reached about 22 million tons per year, and new capacity was about 3.5 million tons per year, mainly from the MTO and PDH routes, according to the aihua consulting data. In 2016, China's polypropylene consumption was about 21 million tons, producing about 18 million tons and net imports of nearly 3 million tons. The consumer area of polypropylene is mainly focused on knitting, injection and BOPP.
Between 2007 and 2016, Chinese polypropylene consumption grew at an average annual rate of more than 8 percent, compared with an average annual growth rate of 10 percent. Since China's production of polypropylene has risen faster than consumption, the self-sufficiency rate has been rising steadily.
3.Chinese polyolefin supply and demand outlook
As of the end of 2016, the total output of polyolefin (PE/PP) in China was about 39m tonnes per year, but the supply and demand gap was almost 13 million tonnes. During the period of "much starker choices-and graver consequences-in", as the HuiLian phase ii, gu lei, sinochem quanzhou petrochemical, zhejiang petrochemical (first phase), and other large hengli petrochemical refinery project is completed, and the CTO/MTO, pyrolysis, PDH ethane route of rapid development, by 2020 China polyolefin can output will reach 46 million tons/year, of which 16.5 million tons/year for polyolefin coal (methanol) based system.
During the period of "much starker choices-and graver consequences-in", as China's urbanization, agricultural modernization development, as well as in rail transit, automobile lightweight, medical equipment, electronic appliances and other industries more widely, polyolefin consumption will continue to grow, China is expected to demand of China polyolefin nearly 50 million tons in 2020, the supply and demand gap still has nearly 4 million tons.
4.Development of high-end polyolefin industry
During the 13th five-year plan period, the Chinese polyolefin industry upgrade needs to focus on the technological innovation of high-end, differentiated, diversified product development. Increase the metallocene polyolefin elastomers, bimodal polyolefin, ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene and other high-end product development and marketing of polyolefin, improve polypropylene pipe material, capacitance film material, polyethylene special material, material for gas pipeline, a car's tank car bumper dedicated, specialized high-end, such as the material of production scale, so as to improve competitiveness of polyolefin industry in China.
The 2nd China high end polyolefin technology and marketing seminar, sponsored by the Asia consulting group, will be held in suzhou, June 29-30, 2017. We will explore the application and market trends of high-end polyolefins in the world and China. Plans for the future of different raw materials high-end polyolefin projects; High performance exclusive and functional polyolefin; Modified plastics and plastic alloys; Metal-metal-polyolefin development and application; High carbon alpha-olefin copolymer production process progress.